Sunday 23 June 2019

On the Brink of War

In the event of a war with Iran, to which the pro-war Neocons in the Trump administration are vying for, and desperate to provoke, the Middle East finds itself on the brink of disaster.  War in the region can blow it apart and send it to smithereens.

The question is this: How many the US lives if any, the American administration is willing to sacrifice for Israel?

Going to war, even with no land invasion, but aerial bombardment could mean the start of a proxy war against American interest around the world that would almost inevitably hurt the US.  Innocent civilian lives are at risk from all kinds of insurgents to render American interests vulnerable to attack.

The scenario of what follows can be deadly.  Indeed if not in the first hour but in the next one, American superpower can destroy Iranian nuclear and industrial basis together with a large swathe of Iranian infrastructure.  Although it would be achieved probably without American lives lost but it will undoubtedly cause many innocent Iranian lives lost; surgical bombing or otherwise.  That is not to say, however, what the aftermath could be since the will to retaliate will be fired up, and that could prove costly to US human lives from state-sponsored agencies, such as its Quds forces or rogue operators.  American troops in Iraq, Syria, Qatar beside American interests are spread throughout the Middle East all becoming targets.

Europe as weak as it is, yet it is not supportive of American actions nor are they convinced of Israel's efforts to sway them towards its PowerPoint "proof" of Iranian nuclear build-up.  In the meantime, neither the FBI nor the CIA or British Intelligence agencies could prove that Iran is engaged in atomic military activities.

Now America has backed down and pulled back from the abyss.  Humiliated, apparent foreign policy failure and reputation dented, Trump has finally shown sense.  At this last hour, surely dialogue is of the essence.  Sanctions eased if not lifted altogether.

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